Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis is primarily over land across western Africa, however, a small segment exits the coast of southern Mauritania near 17N16W and reaches southwestward to near 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to the coast of Brazil near 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 06N between 15W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

A weak pressure pattern continues across the Gulf this morning. The main influence is high pressure over the western Atlantic, with a trough over the eastern Gulf off Florida, and another trough over the southwest Gulf. No shower or thunderstorm activity is evident, but hazy conditions are being reported in some sections of the western Gulf due to smoke from local agricultural and forest fires in eastern and southern Mexico. Light breezes and nearly calm seas are noted in the far northeast Gulf, with gentle to moderate breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the basin through at least Tue supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and moderate seas across the northeastern and north-central Gulf. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds each evening over the eastern and central Bay of Campeche through the forecast period due to local effects related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida at night through Wed night. Southeast winds and seas will increase over the western and central Gulf for Tue through Wed.

Caribbean Sea

A broad deep layer trough is over the western Atlantic reaching to the north-central Caribbean. Divergent southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough continues to support ample moisture across the central and eastern Caribbean, and resultant scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean coastal waters of eastern Panama and Colombia. Farther east, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is producing scattered passing showers across much of the eastern Caribbean and adjacent islands east of about 70W. Drier conditions are noted over the northwestern Caribbean, under the influence of the northern flow aloft west of the trough. At the surface, the wind flow pattern is being driven by relatively weak high pressure that is present north of the area to the northeast of the northern Bahamas, and the usual low pressure found off Colombia. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate easterly flow across the basin along with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except for fresh northeast winds off Colombia, and moderate to fresh northeast to east winds in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 6 to 8 ft off of Colombia.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh to strong winds at night in the Windward Passage and south of Cuba, tonight through at least Wed night, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front reaches from near Bermuda to northeast Florida, north of a trough reaching from Puerto Rico toward Bermuda. A few showers and thunderstorms are active off northeast Florida, and just ahead of the front over the central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted north of the front. Gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere to the west of 55W. Farther east, the pattern is dominated by 1034 mb high pressure centered near the Azores Islands, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a reinforcing front will enter the waters off northeast Florida late today, merge with the stationary front and reach from near 31N57W to 25N67W to the NW Bahamas early Tue. The front is forecast to stall on Wed from near 31N53W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front. Building high pressure in the wake of the front will dominate most of the forecast waters for remainder of the week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen

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