Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC.

Special Features

Tropical Storm Erin is centered near 18.1N 55.2W at 15/1200 UTC or 450 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 15N to 23N between 51W and 61W. Peak seas are 21 ft.On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days and Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and it could become a major hurricane by this weekend. Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. And British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Southwestern Gulf (AL98): Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted in association with a disturbance located about 75 miles off the coast of northeastern Mexico or southern Texas coastline. The system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland this afternoon or evening. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning. There is a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic extending from 05N to 18N with axis near 19W, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 16N between 13W and 23W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 04N to 18N with axis near 32W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 12N between 26W and 40W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis S of 19N near 69W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 18N between 66W and 70W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis south of 19N and near 83W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean offshores as well as the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 13N30W and to 15N45W. See the tropical waves section for information about convection.

Gulf Of America

Please see the Special Features section for details on Invest 98L over the western Gulf waters.

Invest 98L is generating heavy showers and tstms over the southern Texas and NE Mexico offshore waters along with moderate to fresh SE winds. Aside from the aforementioned disturbance over the NW Gulf, a 1020 mb high pressure located over the NE Gulf is providing light to gentle variable winds and slight seas E of 90W. Moderate seas to 5 ft are ongoing over the western half of the Gulf.

For the forecast, aside from Invest 98L, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through Sun night. Elsewhere light to gentle variable winds will dominate across the basin through Tue night.

Caribbean Sea

Please, see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Erin.

Tropical Storm Erin is near 17.8N 54.4W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean along with moderate seas to 6 ft.

For the forecast, Erin will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.4N 56.9W this afternoon, move to 19.3N 59.9W Sat morning, 20.1N 62.5W Sat afternoon, 21.0N 64.8W Sun morning, 22.2N 66.9W Sun afternoon, and 23.2N 68.5W Mon morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near 25.5N 70.5W early Tue. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail through early next week along with slight to moderate seas.

Atlantic Ocean

Please, see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Erin.

Tropical Storm Erin is near 17.8N 54.4W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Otherwise, a broad ridge extends across the subtropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 40W and between 62W and 74W S of 24N.

For the forecast, Erin will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.4N 56.9W this afternoon, move to 19.3N 59.9W Sat morning, 20.1N 62.5W Sat afternoon, 21.0N 64.8W Sun morning, 22.2N 66.9W Sun afternoon, and 23.2N 68.5W Mon morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near 25.5N 70.5W early Tue. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will result in gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas into early next week.

Posted 1 hour, 47 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Nar/Mahoney

VIDEO FORECAST

Erin

WEATHER NEWS

CHECK YOUR LOCAL RADAR

U.S.

Florida

Central Florida

Orange

Orlando

Marion

Lake/Sumter

Flagler

Brevard

Osceola

Seminole

Volusia