Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis is primarily over land across western Africa, however, a small segment exits the coast along the border of Mauritania and Senegal near 16N16.5W and reaches southwestward to near 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to the coast of Brazil near 00S50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident south of 05.5N between 15W and 44W.

Gulf Of America

A weak pressure pattern continues across the Gulf this afternoon. The main influence is high pressure over the western Atlantic, centered along the middle Atlantic coast, with a stationary front across NE Florida, and trough over the southwest Gulf. No shower or thunderstorm activity is evident, but hazy conditions are being reported in some sections of the western Gulf due to smoke from local agricultural and forest fires in eastern and southern Mexico. Light breezes and nearly calm seas are noted in the far northeast Gulf, with gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere, except to 5 ft across the central Texas coastal waters.

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the basin through at least Tue, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas across the northeastern and north- central Gulf. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds each evening over the eastern and central Bay of Campeche through the forecast period due to local effects related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida at night through Wed night. Southeast winds and seas will increase over the western and central Gulf for Tue through Wed.

Caribbean Sea

A broad deep layer trough is over the western Atlantic extending S-SW to the north-central Caribbean. Divergent southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean coastal waters from northwest Colombia to southern Nicaragua. Farther east, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is producing scattered passing showers across much of the northeastern Caribbean and adjacent islands east of about 70W. Drier conditions are noted over the northwestern Caribbean, under the influence of the northern flow aloft west of the upper trough. At the surface, the wind flow pattern is being driven by relatively high pressure that is present north of the area along the middle Atlantic coast, and the usual low pressure found off Colombia. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate easterly flow across the basin along with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except for fresh northeast winds off Colombia, and moderate to fresh northeast to east winds in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 6 to 8 ft off of Colombia.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh to strong winds at night in the Windward Passage and south of Cuba, tonight through at least Wed night, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere. The deep layered trough across the basin today will reorganize Tue through mid week, and support active weather across the NE Caribbean and adjacent islands Wed through Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front reaches from near Bermuda to 28N70W to just offshore of northeast Florida. To the southeast of this, a trough persists from 29N63W to the Mona Passage. A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active off northeast Florida, while scattered showers are just ahead of the front. Fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted north of the front. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere to the west of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail between the trough and 60W. The deep-layered trough across the Atlantic is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms extending from the NE Caribbean northward to beyond 31N, between 65W and 55W. East of 60W, the pattern is dominated by 1032 mb high pressure centered west of the Azores Islands, supporting fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a southward moving cold front extends from 31N64W to 28N72W to 30N80W. The front will reach from near 31N57W to 25N70W to the NW Bahamas early Tue, then stall on Wed from near 31N53W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. High pressure north of the front will slide SE behind the front, to produce fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas following the front. High pressure will move to near Bermuda and dominate the forecast waters west of 65W for remainder of the week.

Posted 23 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling